The Biden Administration’s “Friendly Censorship”

Murthy v. Missouri is a case that was recently argued before the United States Supreme Court. It involves the allegation that the Biden administration in 2021 coerced social media companies such as Facebook into removing content that concerned COVID-19 and the COVID-19 vaccine, election integrity, and other matters considered important to the Biden Administration.

The factual findings of the trial court in the case are disturbing, if true:

For   the   last   few   years—at   least   since   the   2020   presidential   transition—a group of federal officials has been in regular contact with nearly every    major    American    social-media    company    about    the    spread    of    “misinformation”  on  their  platforms.  In  their  concern,  those  officials—hailing from the White House, the CDC, the FBI, and a few other agencies—urged  the  platforms  to  remove  disfavored  content  and  accounts  from  their  sites. And, the platforms seemingly complied. They gave the officials access to an expedited reporting system, downgraded or removed flagged posts, and deplatformed  users.  The  platforms  also  changed  their  internal  policies  to  capture  more  flagged  content  and  sent  steady  reports  on  their  moderation  activities to the officials. That went on through the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 congressional election, and continues to this day. “ (5th Circuit Opinion, Case: 23-30445, Document: 00516889176 , Date Filed: 09/08/2023, Pg. 2) (https://law.justia.com/cases/federal/appellate-courts/ca5/23-30445/23-30445-2023-09-08.html)

The Biden Administration and its defenders seem to have responded to these allegations by saying that the factual findings of the trial court are simply mistaken. They claim that the trial court took things out of context, or just outright misrepresented facts:

While the legal questions presented are legitimate, a substantial amount of the underlying evidence now before the Court in this case is problematic or factually incorrect. Snippets of various communications between the government, social media executives, and other parties appear to be stitched together – nay, manufactured – more to support a culture war conspiracy theory than to create a credible factual record” (https://www.justsecurity.org/93487/a-conspiracy-theory-goes-to-the-supreme-court-how-did-murthy-v-missouri-get-this-far/)

The government says it was merely engaging in its own speech to combat what it viewed as “bad speech”, and that it did not coerce social media companies into taking down social media posts it disagreed with:

Brian Fletcher, the principal deputy solicitor general of the United States, argued that the government was legally using its bully pulpit to protect the American public.” (https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/03/18/supreme-court-social-media-biden-missouri/)

Whether the Biden administration was merely engaged in its own speech or whether it intentionally used the threat of force to coerce social media companies into censoring the posts of their users will be determined through the court process.

Even if the government was simply using its own speech to counter what it viewed as “bad speech”, without any intentional threat of coercion, given the reach of government when it comes to regulating the economy, I think companies and businessmen must, of necessity, take into account what a President and his administration say.

In 1962, Ayn Rand wrote an article titled “Have Gun, Will Nudge” in which she discussed the efforts of then head of the FCC, Newton N. Minow, to “encourage” broadcasters to air certain types of “educational programs”. She noted that the arbitrary power held by the FCC in the form of its licensing of broadcasters meant that it didn’t have to engage in explicit censorship. Broadcasters would attempt to discern through their contacts and back-channels with Washington what the FCC officials would like to see on the airwaves, and then provide it:

No, a federal commissioner may never utter a single word for or against any program. But what do you suppose will happen if and when, with or without his knowledge, a third-assistant or a second cousin or just a nameless friend from Washington whispers to a television executive that the commissioner does not like producer X or does not approve of writer Y or takes a great interest in the career of starlet Z or is anxious to advance the cause of the United Nations?” (Ayn Rand, “Have Gun, Will Nudge” https://ari.aynrand.org/issues/government-and-business/regulations/pov-have-gun-will-nudge/ )

For the people running a television station, or, today, a social media company, not listening to what the President wants them to post or not post would be almost suicidal. The President has enormous power to bring any company to its knees through executive orders and arbitrary regulations. It doesn’t even matter if the President and his administration intends to engage in censorship. The massive and arbitrary power that the President, and the government in general, holds over any company through economic regulation means any broadcaster or social media company has to take into account what the government wants, just as a matter of self-preservation. If Facebook or Google believes that keeping up certain social media posts might have even a one percent chance of getting them slapped with an antitrust suit, the cost of keeping up the post just isn’t worth the benefits. That’s why true freedom of speech likely isn’t even possible today. As Ayn Rand noted:

The right to life is the source of all rights — and the right to property is their only implementation. Without property rights, no other rights are possible.”(“Man’s Rights”, Ayn Rand https://ari.aynrand.org/issues/government-and-business/individual-rights/ )

 

The Basis of Punishment of Criminals When Reading Murray Rothbard and Ayn Rand

The Basis of Punishment of Criminals, Based On My Reading of Ayn Rand’s Theory of Rights and Government

As far as I can tell, Ayn Rand did not discuss the details of government much beyond saying that it would have police, military and courts:

The only proper purpose of a government is to protect man’s rights, which means: to protect him from physical violence. A proper government is only a policeman, acting as an agent of man’s self-defense, and, as such, may resort to force only against those who start the use of force. The only proper functions of a government are: the police, to protect you from criminals; the army, to protect you from foreign invaders; and the courts, to protect your property and contracts from breach or fraud by others, to settle disputes by rational rules, according to objective law.” (Atlas Shrugged, Ayn Rand, emphasis added, http://aynrandlexicon.com/lexicon/government.html)

Since Ayn Rand said that there would be police, and did not give any other definition of what “police” are, we can assume that she generally accepted the role police play in contemporary society today, so long as that role was delimited to protecting rights.

The way police function today is by catching criminals, taking them to court for an adjudication of guilt or innocence, and then incarcerating those found guilty for a period of time. (Leaving aside certain petty crimes that only involve a fine, and assuming the death penalty does not exist.) Presumably Rand thought arrest and incarceration was appropriate, but how exactly does incarceration protect rights, and whose rights does it protect?

It does not appear that Ayn Rand ever explicitly discusses how it is that the police and the incarceration process protects individual rights. She says that the purpose of government is based in the right to self-defense:

The necessary consequence of man’s right to life is his right to self-defense. In a civilized society, force may be used only in retaliation and only against those who initiate its use. All the reasons which make the initiation of physical force an evil, make the retaliatory use of physical force a moral imperative.” (“The Nature of Government”, The Virtue of Selfishness, Ayn Rand, emphasis added.)

I can see how an individual can prevent himself from being murdered by using self-defense. If the victim is armed, he can try to outshoot the person trying to murder him, thereby saving his life. If the victim is a quicker draw than the person attacking him, or just a better shot, then he can stop the attacker with a bullet.  But, in the case of a person already murdered, he cannot act in self-defense, and the state cannot defend him, because he is already dead. How is the state prosecuting the murderer, after the fact, self-defense? It must be in the sense that every other living person needs to stop the murderer from killing again, and for their own self-defense, rather than the defense of the murder victim, who is beyond help.

Even for lesser crimes, what is the probability that the criminal will re-victimize that particular victim? If a bank robber robs a bank, wouldn’t he be more likely to rob a completely different bank in the future? The bank that was just robbed is more likely to take additional security precautions, so it would be smarter for the criminal to find a new target. Although the government is defending the bank already robbed, it is also protecting other banks that have yet to be robbed.

Also, this still doesn’t explicitly answer the question of exactly how does locking up a person convicted of murder help defend the still living, in the case of a crime like murder? (And, I am just assuming that Ayn Rand would be in favor of incarceration, because I don’t know that she ever explicitly says that this is how criminals should be punished.) I don’t think Ayn Rand explicitly answers the question of “how”, but I think I am able to see logical implications based on her writing. For instance, Ayn Rand said the following:

If a society provided no organized protection against force, it would compel every citizen to go about armed, to turn his home into a fortress, to shoot any strangers approaching his door-or to join a protective gang of citizens who would fight other gangs, formed for the same purpose, and thus bring about the degeneration of that society into the chaos of gang rule, i.e., rule by brute force, into the perpetual tribal warfare of prehistorical savages.“ (“The Nature of Government”, The Virtue of Selfishness, Ayn Rand, emphasis added.)

So, it is “organized protection against force” that is the goal of government. Government is not primarily “organized revenge” or even “organized retaliation”. Government exists for purposes of protection. Only actions by government that protect against force are justified. But, what about the person already murdered? How can he be protected by government? Clearly, the dead cannot be protected, only the currently living. Whatever government does to the murderer is done to protect the currently living, not for the sake of the deceased.

I see only two ways that a government can provide “organized protection against force” in the case of murder, which is generally considered to be the worst crime:

(1) Government establishes a penalty for murder, and that penalty is always imposed, so that everyone is discouraged from committing murder. Government imposes a penalty to protect the currently living from being murdered in the future. The only way that penalty will work is if it is, in fact, imposed whenever a murder is committed. The government is threatening the use of force to protect the currently living. The threat of force by the government is not against any particular individual, but against everyone in society. Another way to look at it is that government promises or declares that anyone who violates individual rights by initiating physical force will be met with force.

(2) Government actually uses force to prohibit future crimes being committed by a specifically identified murderer. Government is actually imposing the force, rather than merely threatening the use of force, to protect the currently living from that particular, identified, murderer.

The first is the “deterrent” or “general deterrence” argument for punishment. The second I’d call the “restraintist” argument for punishment, although I think some legal philosophers might say this is “specific deterrence”.

I should note that I can somewhat see a third basis for how government can provide “organized protection against force”. It would be very understandable that the family and friends of the murdered person would want to enact revenge on the murderer by killing him. I doubt that this feeling is rational, but it is very understandable. It’s also very likely to take place if there is no organized government. By having an organized system of punishment, government can provide friends and family members of the victim with sufficient emotional satisfaction that they might be less inclined to seek revenge. I think this “retributivist” basis might just be a form of “deterrence”, in the sense that it discourages the victim’s friends and family members from seeking revenge against the killer.

Another point to note is that I don’t think the first two, and maybe not even the third, possible bases on which government imposes “organized protection against force”, are necessarily mutually exclusive.

Unfortunately, Rand does not give much in the way of detail about how government, and in particular, the police, will protect individual rights, other than to say that the police represent a delegated and organized use of force in self-defense against criminals. The logical implication seems to be that the police are not just defending the victim, who, in the case of murder, is beyond help, but everyone else in society that could be the criminal’s next victim. A further logical implication is that this organized use of force by police is in the form of incarceration, which serves the purpose of restraining the particular criminal from future crimes, and/or deterring future crime by others.

The Basis of Punishment of Criminals For Murray Rothbard

If my interpretation of the Randian basis for punishment, as lying primarily in “deterrence” and “restraint” is correct, then Murray Rothbard would disagree with Rand. (At the very least, I disagree with Rothbard about the basis of punishment.)

Rothbard explicitly states that retributivism is the basis of punishment of criminals:

It should be evident that our theory of proportional punishment: that people may be punished by losing their rights to the extent that they have invaded the rights of others, is frankly a retributive theory of punishment, a ‘tooth (or two teeth) for a tooth’ theory.” (The Ethics of Liberty, Murray N. Rothbard, Chapter 13, “Punishment and Proportionality”)

Rothbard does say that the purpose of using force in retaliation is self-defense:

Many people, when confronted with the libertarian legal system, are concerned with this problem: would somebody be allowed to ‘take the law into his own hands’? Would the victim, or a friend of the victim, be allowed to exact justice personally on the criminal? The answer is, of course, Yes, since all rights of punishment derive from the victim’s right of self-defense.” (The Ethics of Liberty, Murray N. Rothbard, Chapter 13, “Punishment and Proportionality”)

But, in many cases, the principle of “an eye for an eye” does not seem to have anything to do with anyone’s defense, whether that be the victim, or other people that the criminal might victimize in the future. The retributivist focuses on the punishment aspect, rather than the defense of others, and this seems true for Rothbard. For instance, he says that a person who has been assaulted should have the right to beat up his attacker in return:

In the question of bodily assault, where restitution does not even apply, we can again employ our criterion of proportionate punishment; so that if A has beaten up B in a certain way, then B has the right to beat up A (or have him beaten up by judicial employees) to rather more than the same extent.” (The Ethics of Liberty, Murray N. Rothbard, Chapter 13, “Punishment and Proportionality”)

Although the threat of getting beat up might, to a certain extent, serve a deterrence effect, this is not why Rothbard advocates it. Instead, it is because he thinks the perpetrator of a crime should have the same done to him. (“A tooth for a tooth.”) To me, this seems completely senseless. How does the victim beating the shit out of his attacker, after the fact, help the situation? Also, how would this prevent the victim from being beat up in the future? With incarceration, the attacker is put in jail for a period of time, which better ensures the victim’s safety.

Rothbard does address the “deterrence” viewpoint, and another major modern school of thought, regarding the purpose of incarceration, which is the “rehabilitation” viewpoint. His critique of the “deterrence” viewpoint is that it would involve the use of levels of punishment that most people would regard as inappropriate or unfair. So, for instance, most people would regard shoplifting as a minor crime, and that the punishment should be very light. But, Rothbard says that if shoplifting were legal, then many more people would commit the crime of shoplifting than if the crime of murder were legal. He says this is because more people have “…a far greater built-in inner objection to themselves committing murder than they have to petty shoplifting, and would be far less apt to commit the grosser crime.” (The Ethics of Liberty, Murray N. Rothbard, Chapter 13, “Punishment and Proportionality”)

As far as I can tell, Rothbard provides no evidence that people would be more likely to commit shoplifting than murder if the two were legal. This does seem likely to me too, but I have no basis for saying that, other than I like to think that most people are not prone to commit murder. If there were no laws, isn’t it likely that people would kill or steal when they thought it would suit them? Does it even matter what they’d do if there were no laws? If we have a theory of rights based on the fundamental right to life, like Ayn Rand’s philosophy, then doesn’t that philosophical system say that murder must be worse than shoplifting, precisely because the former is an assault on the fundamental basis of rights? So, wouldn’t that be the basis of a system of proportionality, in which murder is punished more harshly than shoplifting? This would only seem to be a problem for someone with a utilitarian philosophical basis, which is what Rothbard is criticizing when he criticizes the deterrence school:

Deterrence was the principle put forth by utilitarianism, as part of its aggressive dismissal of principles of justice and natural law, and the replacement of these allegedly metaphysical principles by hard practicality. The practical goal of punishments was then supposed to be to deter further crime, either by the criminal himself or by other members of society. But this criterion of deterrence implies schemas of punishment which almost everyone would consider grossly unjust.” (The Ethics of Liberty, Murray N. Rothbard, Chapter 13, “Punishment and Proportionality”, emphasis added.)

Clearly, Ayn Rand is not a utilitarian, but, as already discussed, her views on rights and the nature of government would suggest that “deterrence” is part of the purpose of incarceration of criminals. Incarceration would be for the purpose of protecting the rights of people living in society, as well as the original victim, if he is still alive.

Rothbard also dismisses the “rehabilitation” viewpoint because it would seem to lead to absurd results, like incarcerating someone for shoplifting for longer than a murderer, if it is determined that the murderer has been successfully rehabilitated and will not commit more crimes:

“…in our case of Smith and Jones, suppose that the mass murderer Smith is, according to our board of ‘experts’, rapidly rehabilitated. He is released in three weeks, to the plaudits of the supposedly successful reformers. In the meanwhile, Jones, the fruit-stealer, persists in being incorrigible and clearly un-rehabilitated, at least in the eyes of the expert board. According to the logic of the principle, he must stay incarcerated indefinitely, perhaps for the rest of his life…”(The Ethics of Liberty, Murray N. Rothbard, Chapter 13, “Punishment and Proportionality”)

Although I cannot find support in Ayn Rand’s writing for this, I believe “rehabilitation” does play a role in the length of incarceration of someone convicted of a crime, but not quite in the way that I think this term is used by philosophers of law. I think that the possibility that the convict can “rehabilitate” himself, due to the possession of a volitional consciousness means that the length of a prison sentence may be less than the convict’s life. Since people possess volition, even a murderer can change his thought patterns and his actions for the better in the future. I disagree that the government or society can “rehabilitate” a convict, but I think that the convict can “rehabilitate” himself. Lesser crimes, besides murder, are therefore likely to carry less than a life sentence, given the fact of human volition. I think the possibility of self-rehabilitation by the convict is a major factor to consider when weighing the proportionality of the punishment in relation to the crime. The fact of volition must be weighed, as much as possible, against the possibility that a person found guilty of a minor crime might go on to commit more serious crimes in the future, while at the same time, recognizing that the commission of a minor crime might be a “fluke” or a one-time event that would not be repeated by the convict. Additionally, someone found guilty of a murder, who is facing a life sentence, is likely to lie to get out of prison early, so making the determination that he is truly rehabilitated is not going to be easy.

Admittedly, unlike the retributivist system of crime and punishment proposed by Rothbard, determining the extent of the punishment in particular circumstances, along the lines I have proposed, would be more difficult. “An eye for an eye” has the advantage of being easy to implement. If someone is beat up, then they get to beat up their attacker, which makes assessing the punishment easy, albeit ridiculous and irrational.

 

White Collar Crime and Race

On at least two occasions, I’ve heard the following reply to my pointing out that a disproportionate amount of the violent crimes, such as murder, robbery and rape are committed by non-whites in the United States. (In other words,  even though blacks make up about 14 percent of the population, in some years, about half of all murder and non-negligent manslaughter is committed by someone categorized racially as black.)

The retort I’ve heard, at least twice, is: “White people commit more white-collar crimes.

I didn’t consider this to be a particularly great response because: (a) I was only talking about violent crime, so this is dropping the context of the discussion, and (b) I don’t consider “white collar” crime to be a major problem. That’s just money. I do consider people loosing their lives to violence to be a bigger problem.

I had always assumed that this assertion was correct. Now, I am not so sure. Looking at FBI crime statistics broken down by race for 2011, we can see the number of people arrested by race for various crimes. This includes rows for “Forgery and counterfeiting”, “Fraud”, and “Embezzlement”. All three of these I would characterize as “white collar crimes”. For Fraud, the percentage of whites arrested for fraud is 66.5 percent, while the percentage of blacks arrested for fraud is 31.8 percent. The percentage break-downs for forgery and counterfeiting and embezzlement are about the same. Again, since blacks only make up about 14 percent of the population, the percentage of total crime that this racial group “should” be committing is about 14 percent. The fact that it is running around 31 percent, means its about twice as high as what it would be if each racial group was committing the amount of crime “representative” of its portion of the population.  (At least, this is how I see it, but I am not great at math.)

Now, maybe there are studies that define “white collar crime” differently, such that it is limited to a particular subset of fraud and embezzlement, where whites do in fact commit more “white collar crime”. I have a hypothesis on this that I’d like to see tested. I suspect this is more about access than inclination of blacks versus whites to commit such crime. When we think “white collar crime”, we think of people who are in positions of financial, legal, or corporate responsibility at a business. White collar criminals are probably more educated and have worked their way up the corporate ladder sufficiently to be in a position to commit a white collar crime. For instance, an accountant at a corporation is in a position to “cook the books” and embezzle money more easily than, say, a janitor. What racial group are most accountants? They are mostly white, with Asians probably in a close second. In fact, according to this article, fewer than one percent of all CPA’s employed by firms are black. If you gave all people, of all races, the same amount of opportunity to commit “white collar crime”, what would the results be?

I also think it’s entirely possible that a black person who has worked hard enough to become sufficiently educated to be a CPA is actually less likely than a white CPA to commit a crime. I could see the black CPA’s reasoning as follows:

I’ve seen all the criminals and thugs around me as I’ve been growing up. I didn’t work this hard and put up with all those criminals through the inner-city schools to be like them. So, I will always be very honest and law-abiding.”

In other words, the black, educated professional may have more desire to separate himself from the disproportionate levels of violent crime, and, apparently, fraud, forgery, and embezzlement, that are being committed by other black people. This would be an interesting thing to see an honest study about. But, since most academics in the social sciences have a Marxist-mindset, with a left-wing ideological axe to grind, we may never know.

 

 

 

The COVID-19 Crisis, Collectivism, and Capitalism

The military, police, and medical professions often train for emergency situations.  (https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/choke/201005/want-success-under-stress-close-the-gap-between-practice-and-competition)   First responders and military try to create a system of steps that are to be taken in situations that are not likely to occur on a daily basis. It’s widely recognized that high stress is going to make thinking harder, not easier. Success in an emergency situations depends on thinking ahead of time about what steps need to be taken, and then training before the emergency occurs.

I suspect emergency responders train because the human mind needs a set of guiding principles to deal with the overwhelming sensory information that is presented to it. A person often does not have the time to sit down and evaluate each situation individually and determine what the best course of action is. Action is called for, especially in an emergency.

Concepts are a means of categorizing sensory-perceptual data in a systematic manner to improve one’s chances of living a successful and happy life. (How We Know: Epistemology on An Objectivist Foundation”, Binswanger,2014, TOF Publications, pg. 135; see, also, “The Virtue of Selfishness: The Objectivist Ethics”, Rand,Man’s actions and survival require the guidance of conceptual values derived from conceptual knowledge.”)

A “principle” is a sort of aphorism or mental statement, made up of simpler concepts. It describes a particular cause-and-effect relationship one must implement to increase the chances of living. (How We Know: Epistemology on An Objectivist Foundation”, Binswanger,2014, TOF Publications, Pg 306.) For instance, a person might adopt the principle of: “When dealing with others, treat them fairly, and in a win-win manner.” This is a principle guiding how one deals with other people socially and in business. This principle of justice is a recognition that just as you want to live, so too, do most other people want to live. You must provide them with a benefit to keep them dealing with you. It is a recognition of a particular cause -giving positive incentives for other people- that will bring about a particular effect -the benefits of trade.  A boss pays his workers, the cause, in exchange for their labor, an effect, that he wants. A person listens to his friend describe his fantastic new job, and congratulates him, because he wants his friend to offer him positive reinforcement when something good happens in his own life. Husbands don’t cheat on their wives (the cause), because their wives agree to live with them and have sex only with them (the effect).

Problems can arise from the human mind’s need for principles to live in at least two way: (1) Some principles adopted by people are either false, or are false in a particular context; and (2) Not everyone agrees that the purpose of principles is to improve your life and well-being. Dogma is an example of “principles” that are aimed at some purpose other than living. (For instance, a religious instruction that tells people not to eat certain foods, not because of any health reasons, but simply because it is forbidden by some sort of supernatural authority.)

A feature of the human mind is a tendency to “fall to the level of your training” rather than “rise to the occasion” during a national emergency. People are going to tend to take whatever pre-existing ideas they may have about human nature, society, and the good life, and apply them. If they haven’t thought too deeply about the implications of these ideas, then there can be negative consequences.

Political systems and social systems tend to operate on a sort of “inertia”, in which our cultural institutions are based on long-standing ideas and traditions. As a result, our political systems may last longer than the ideas that created them. In the past hundred and fifty years, the ideas that created American culture and institutions have largely been discarded by academics and intellectuals in exchange for other notions. Our institutions and social mores have changed more slowly, because of “cultural inertia”. Our court systems, political institutions, and some social customs, are based in a better era. They exemplify the “pursuit of happiness” expounded by Enlightenment philosophers, like John Locke and Aristotle. Academics have long since rejected those ideas in favor of the collectivism of Marx and the duty of Kant. (See “Explaining Post Modernism: Skepticism and Socialism From Rousseau to Foucault”, Hicks, 2018)

I am not a historian, but what I think happens in a national emergency or social crisis is that the old institutions need adjustment to the current context, but since academics, lawyers, politicians, and other cultural elites don’t really understand or accept the ideas on which those old institutions were formed, they are unable to offer any sort of adjustment or modification of those institutions. All they have available in their conceptual “toolbox” are the newer ideas, which have never been fully implemented, due to the “cultural inertia” I discussed. As a result, during a social crisis, there is a strong possibility of a sudden overthrow of the old institutions in favor of contrary, newer ideas. The contradiction between the new ideas and the old institutions suddenly becomes unsustainable, and there is a quick shift.

The tendency of old institutions to be overthrown in favor of a new system, representing current ideas, during a crisis is not necessarily bad. It depends on what those newer ideas are, and what the new system consists of. It’s possible the new ideas are better than the ideas that formed the basis of the old regime. It is theorized by some historians that the Black Death in Europe, between 1348 and 1350, helped shatter the old Feudal order:

What’s often missing from this story, however, is the wider context and the lasting impact of the Black Death. This is a story not only of unfathomable tragedy, but also of transformation and rebirth. The plague, in combination with a host of other related and overlapping crises, delivered a death blow to Medieval Europe, ushering in a new age — the Renaissance and the rise of so-called agrarian capitalism — and ultimately setting the stage for the Industrial Revolution and the modern world.” (“The Black Death led to the demise of feudalism. Could this pandemic have a similar effect?”, Adam McBride, in April 26, 2020 ed. of “Salon”, emphasis added, online at:  https://www.salon.com/2020/04/26/the-black-death-led-to-the-demise-of-feudalism-could-this-pandemic-have-a-similar-effect/ )

(Note: I do not agree with the proposed political and policy solutions in the last several paragraphs of this article, but I do agree with the historical account of the Black Death as an immediate cause of the end of the Middle Ages.)

The reason the Black Death could be socially and politically transformative, giving rise to the Renaissance, is because there were underlying ideas that had been circulating in the European culture for some time. The Renaissance was a “rebirth” of Ancient Greek ideas:

The argument [amongst medieval scholastics] paralleled the classical one between Plato and the Sophists. Plato believed that Ideas (Forms) had a perfect and independent existence, while the Sophists thought that only particular things existed. In the Middle Ages, those who held that ‘universals’ were real were called ‘realists’; those who declared that they were just names (nomina) were called ‘nominalists’. The argument was (and is) of critical importance to one’s philosophical outlook. The extreme realists attached little importance to individual things and sought through sheer logic or divine revelation to approach the universals. The extreme nominalists, by contrast, perceived only discrete objects and refused to admit the existence of unifying relationships among the infinitude of particulars. The realists tended to ignore the observed world; the nominalists could scarcely comprehend it. Most schoolmen took a middle position on this question. Among the moderates, [Peter] Abelard…held that only particular things have an existence in and of themselves. The universals, however, are more than mere names. They exist as concepts in individual minds -keys to an understanding of the interrelatedness of things…By means of many such concepts, inferred from individual observations, we can make the world (to a degree) comprehensible, manageable, and predictable…Thomas Aquinas, the greatest of the scholastic philosophers, was a moderate realist…Following the lead of…Abelard…Aquinas set a high value on the faculty of reason. By this time the full impact of Aristotle and the new learning from the East had struck the schools and universities of Europe, and Christian dogmas were being challenged by pagan, Muslim, and Jewish logicians…Aquinas adopted Aristotelian logic and turned it to the defense of his faith….Both faith and reason, he argued, were created by God, and it is illogical to hold that God could contradict himself.” (“A Brief History of Western Man”,  3d Ed., Greer, Thomas, 1977 Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Inc., Chapter 6: “The Flowering of Medieval Culture, Pg. 214-215)

Thomas Aquinas had brought Aristotelian thought back to Europe, in the sense of giving those ideas institutional respectability in the Catholic church. Most cultural and academic elites of that time were in the Church. By adopting Aristotle to fit with Church doctrine, at least for a while, Aquinas lay the groundwork for the Renaissance. He predated the Black Death, with published works between the 1240’s and the 1280’s. ( https://www.britannica.com/topic/Christianity/Aristotle-and-Aquinas )  A reemergence of the ideas of Aristotle took the focus of intellectuals away from a hard, “Platonic realism”, which focused on alleged revelations from another word. Aristotelianism moved European thinking towards greater observation of particulars in the world of our senses, which is essential to scientific and modern thinking.

This history of the Black Death, the reemergence of Aristotelianism in the late Middle Ages, and the Renaissance, suggests a theory concerning how historical change occurs: A crisis can accelerate what is already occurring in a society. Newer ideas that have been circulating in the culture for some time can quickly and drastically transform social and political institutions during a crisis. Those transformations can be for better or worse, depending on the underlying ideas driving the transformation.

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COVID-19 is our current national crisis. People are approaching it with a lifetime of ideas they have gathered up and accepted, either expressly, or by default, because they didn’t examine the ideas around them too closely. What ideas have a significant segment of the American population accepted? What ideas have the majority of academics, journalists, lawyers, and politicians accepted? In a crisis, there is very little time to act. Immediate action is called for. Just like soldiers will “fall to the level of their training” rather than “rise to the occasion” in an emergency, so too will politicians fall to the level of their “training” from college. What did they learn at the universities? For the most part, their professors taught them to embrace collectivism, and to reject individual rights. This collectivism has taken the form of many slogans over the years, and now, the serpent’s egg is hatching.

I’ll start by defining some of my key terms:

(1) What are individual rights?

A ‘right’ is a moral principle defining and sanctioning a man’s freedom of action in a social context.” (The Virtue of Selfishness, “Man’s Rights”, Ayn Rand)

(2) What is the purpose of individual rights?

Rights are conditions of existence required by man’s nature for his proper survival. If man is to live on earth, it is right for him to use his mind, it is right to act on his own free judgment, it is right to work for his values and to keep the product of his work. If life on earth is his purpose, he has a right to live as a rational being: nature forbids him the irrational.” (Atlas Shrugged, Ayn Rand)

(3) What is collectivism?

Collectivism means the subjugation of the individual to a group—whether to a race, class or state does not matter. Collectivism holds that man must be chained to collective action and collective thought for the sake of what is called ‘the common good.’”  (Ayn Rand, “The Only Path to Tomorrow,” Reader’s Digest, Jan, 1944, 8., http://aynrandlexicon.com/lexicon/collectivism.html)

Our society and legal system are a combination of egoism and individual rights on the one hand and collectivism and “the common good” on the other. The former are older ideas that are based in the likes of Aristotle and John Locke, while the later are based in the ideas of Marx, Hegel, and other 18th Century philosophers. (See “Explaining Post Modernism: Skepticism and Socialism From Rousseau to Foucault”, Hicks, 2018; see, also, The Ominous Parallels, Leonard Peikoff.)

The expression: “The road to hell is paved with good intentions” is inaccurate. The road to hell is paved by what one considers to be the good, but is, in fact, the opposite. The road to hell is paved by collectivist intentions. Several commonly held collectivist ideas have resulted in what are logical, albeit unforeseen, consequences of the government’s reaction to the present COVID-19 epidemic. What are some of these collectivist ideas driving the current governmental response to COVID-19?

(1) The Collectivist Idea that “Healthcare Is A Right”

One of the first acts of many state governors in the face of the COVID-19 crisis was to force “non-essential” healthcare workers off the job. Counties and states banned “elective” medical care. https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/dallas-county-enacts-shelter-in-place-effective-sunday-night-to-combat-covid-19-pandemic/

Apparently, politicians thought of doctors and healthcare workers as having “fungible” skill-sets. If they banned “elective” procedures, then they believed this would leave more healthcare “resources” for others. However, just because a doctor can perform a rhinoplasty or a breast-enhancement surgery, doesn’t mean he has sufficient knowledge to treat a person suffering from a viral respiratory illness. A dermatologist can’t perform heart surgery:

“…thousands of health care workers across the nation who have been laid off, furloughed or are working reduced hours as their services are deemed nonessential…The workers range from dentists and general surgeons to medical assistants and nurses, from allergists and dermatologists to primary care physicians and pediatricians.” https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/04/02/coronavirus-pandemic-jobs-us-health-care-workers-furloughed-laid-off/5102320002/

People were told by politicians not to be selfish, and forego “elective” medical procedures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Who decides what is an important health care matter and what is merely “elective”? When health care is viewed as a right, it’s not you and your doctor. The government owns your doctor’s life. (And your life.) Politicians and bureaucrats, viewing healthcare as a “right” are essentially saying:

“That spot on your arm? Probably nothing, probably not melanoma. That toothache? Probably nothing probably not a life-threatening tooth abscess. That debilitating knee pain? How selfish of you to want to be out of pain when there are people dying. You think you have a life-threatening peanut allergy, and need to see your allergist? Suck it up, and quit complaining, buttercup.”

What was the consequence of government forbidding “elective medicine”? Doctors and hospitals can no longer make a profit, which means, in the long run, they’ll go out of business and there will be less healthcare, not more:

Government-mandated cutbacks on elective procedures and routine check-ups have forced independent medical practices to temporarily close their doors. The loss of revenue may soon force some practices to furlough staff, and in the worst-case scenarios to go out of business, causing significant access-to-care disruptions once the pandemic subsides.”  https://triblive.com/opinion/dr-lawrence-john-covid-19-could-devastate-medical-practices/

Thinking of “health care as a right” has also led to a massive conflict between different groups in our society. One group doesn’t need to go out to work, either because they can work from home, or because they are wealthy enough to avoid work. Another group, needs to work, and cannot do so from home. Their jobs and businesses have been largely shut down due to local and state “stay at home orders”. This reflects the phenomena of “rights inflation”.

A collectivist tyranny dare not enslave a country by an outright confiscation of its values, material or moral. It has to be done by a process of internal corruption. Just as in the material realm the plundering of a country’s wealth is accomplished by inflating the currency—so today one may witness the process of inflation being applied to the realm of rights. The process entails such a growth of newly promulgated ‘rights’ that people do not notice the fact that the meaning of the concept is being reversed. Just as bad money drives out good money, so these ‘printing-press rights’ negate authentic rights….The ‘gimmick’ was the switch of the concept of rights from the political to the economic realm. The Democratic Party platform of 1960 summarizes the switch boldly and explicitly….The right to a useful and remunerative job…The right to adequate medical care and the opportunity to achieve and enjoy good health….If some men are entitled by right to the products of the work of others, it means that those others are deprived of rights and condemned to slave labor.” (Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal, “Man’s Rights”, Ayn Rand https://courses.aynrand.org/works/mans-rights/ , emphasis added.)

If “health care is a right”, then “health is a right” – and it will conflict with other people being able to earn a living with shelter in place orders. The wealthy, who don’t need to work, will tend to see “health as a right” that trumps the right to earn a living by people of lesser means. White-collar workers, who can work from home, will tend to focus on “the right to health”, while service industry people in the restaurant and “non-essential” retail businesses will want to leave home. Who do you think has more influence in Washington and the State Capitals? The wealthy/white collar types, or the poor and service-industry employees?

The retired elderly, who are more susceptible to COVID-19, will also tend to see “health as a right”, that overrides the need of younger adults to earn a living, and of children to obtain an education . Who do you think has more political influence in Washington and at the State and local level? The politicians know senior citizens vote, while the young do not.

Right now, the US has enough wealth that it can manage without people actually starving. Not so in other areas of the world. The lock-downs in Africa are causing people to go without food:

Four weeks into a 35-day lockdown poor communities are facing food shortages as incomes for mostly informal workers have dried up.”

https://news.yahoo.com/violence-looting-point-food-crisis-africa-lockdown-112929125.html

The wealthy of Africa don’t care. They have plenty of food, so they will choose to reduce their health risk, and they’ll impose that choice on the poor.

Years of thinking of “health care as a right”, without considering the context of who is to pay for it and who is to provide it, has resulted in the present conflict between those who can afford the lock-down (the elderly, the wealthy, and white collar workers), and those who cannot afford it (the young, service industry workers, and the working poor.) “Rights inflation” has destroyed real, individual rights to life, liberty, and property. It has lead to “pressure group warfare” in the legislature and government as different interest groups try to ensure their group’s interests are advanced at the expense of other groups. (What I call a “cold civil war”.)

In reality, there is no “right to health care” or “right to food”. There is a right to take the actions necessary to maintain your life, while leaving others free to do the same, by not using physical force against them to deprive them of their values. All law must hold this principle as its touchstone. You have a right not to be robbed. You have a right not to be murdered. You don’t have a right to get together a big enough gang of lobbyists in Washington DC or at the Dallas County Commissioners Court, and then “legally rob” other people through taxes and regulations -or force them to remain in their house and off their job.

(2) The Collectivist Idea of “Prophylactic”, or “Preventative” Law.

“Preventative law”, or “prophylactic rules”, is not aimed at prohibiting the violation of individual rights. It is law aimed at preventing certain actions that could potentially lead to the violation of individual rights. It arises because legislators do not fully understand or comprehend what the purpose of government and law is in the first place: To allow men to live their lives in a social environment, free from the initiation of physical force.

“Gun control” laws are an example of preventative law the left loves. The left wants to stop people who might kill with a gun by banning them for everyone. But, if government officials are entitled to initiate physical force against those who merely choose to own a gun, then there is nothing, in principle to stop them from initiating physical force against anyone deemed a “potential threat”.

Another example are most “environmental regulations”. These laws prohibit certain economic activity not because someone has actually been injured by another person’s pollution coming onto their property, but merely because a business *might* injure someone with its activities.

Another, more relevant, example with regard to the current COVID-19 crisis would be a curfew law. Such a law is enacted to prevent all persons from going outside after a certain hour, because there is a small number of criminals who commit armed robbery at night. This was the example provided by Ayn Rand on a discussion of the concept of law, recorded in the 1960’s. (http://aynrandlexicon.com/ayn-rand-works/objective-law.html. -Starting at about 14 minutes in, Miss Rand discusses this issue for preventative law, and gives the example of curfew laws. She says a small number of people might engage in “night hold ups”, what we’d call a mugging today, but she did not believe it is justification for holding the best in society to the level of the worst in society.)

Preventative law is very common in the laws regulating businesses, and has been for about a hundred years now:

“…’protective’ legislation falls in the category of preventive law. Businessmen are being subjected to governmental coercion prior to the commission of any crime. In a free economy, the government may step in only when a fraud has been perpetrated, or a demonstrable damage has been done to a consumer; in such cases the only protection required is that of criminal law.” (Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal, “The Assault on Integrity” Alan Greenspan.)

The effect of preventative law is to make it difficult to maintain your life. Second Amendment advocates will say something like “when guns are outlawed, only the outlaws have guns”. This is said, in part, because “gun control” makes it impossible to legally use a gun for self-defense. A law-abiding person is being held to the level of a criminal when it comes to “gun control”, even though there is no evidence he would commit a crime with a gun.  In the case of the COVID-19 emergency, those who want to earn a living are being legally prevented from doing so, even though there is no evidence they are sick.

Similar to “gun control” laws and “environmental laws”, with COVID-19, the left wants to stop the vast majority of people from living their lives, with zero due process, and zero evidence that they are sick or contagious.

(3) The Collectivists Hold a “Platonic Guardian” View of Science, and a Distrust of the “Common Man”

The father of collectivism in Western Civilization is Plato. He divides his collectivist “Republic” into three classes: the producers, the auxiliaries, and the guardians:

“The guardians are responsible for ruling the city. They are chosen from among the ranks of the auxiliaries, and are also known as philosopher-kings.”  https://www.sparknotes.com/philosophy/republic/characters/

Today’s leftists view themselves as our society’s philosopher-kings. Their attitude is: “Don’t bother explaining the science to the people. Don’t try to obtain voluntary consent. The people are too stupid to understand. Force is necessary. Force is the only method that is efficacious.”

The hallmark of collectivists is their deep-rooted distrust of freedom and of the free-market processes; but it is their advocacy of so-called ‘consumer protection’ that exposes the nature of their basic premises with particular clarity. By preferring force and fear to incentive and reward as a means of human motivation, they confess their view of man as a mindless brute functioning on the range of the moment…” (Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal, “The Assault on Integrity” Ayn Rand.)

This attitude of the elite philosopher-king who will rule over the rest of us is seen in a common argument amongst environmentalist politicians, which is something along the lines of: “97% of scientist agree that human beings are causing average global temperatures to go up.”  https://www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2016/12/14/fact-checking-the-97-consensus-on-anthropogenic-climate-change/#45e4f5b71157

This is not an argument based in evidence or logical argument. It’s a sort of “argument from authority’” (At one time, the majority of authorities thought the Earth was the center of the universe.) What matters is the evidence, which can be communicated to anyone with a normal brain. If there is evidence, then show the evidence. Don’t just belittle people and tell them there is a scientific consensus, but they’re too stupid to understand the science.  (This argument is probably being used because most of the reporters and politicians who think average global temperatures are going up due to human activity don’t understand the science themselves.)

If you went to the doctor’s office, and he said: “You need immediate surgery, but I’m not going to tell you where or why -just trust my authority as a doctor,” you’d likely want more of an explanation. To the philosopher-king left, no such explanation is necessary or useful during the present COVID-19 crisis. Just obey them because they know better. These decisions are often being made by state governors and mayors, using ill-defined “natural disaster statutes”, with little or no input from legislatures or courts. The actions of California Governor Gavin Newsom, Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer reflect the two-thousand-year-old ideas of Plato. Our “Philosopher-king” governors and mayors will rule over us, the “unwashed masses”. We’re too stupid to make our own decisions.

In Ayn Rand’s novel Atlas Shrugged, a major character is a government scientist who sets himself up as a sort of “philosopher-king”, who wants state funded science because he thinks the people are too stupid to make their own decisions, or to understand science. This is the story of Dr. Robert Stadler. He was a brilliant scientist, disgusted by the profit motive and the need to earn a living. He viewed science as something that should be pursued, not to serve human life, but as a “pure intellectual pursuit”. For Dr. Stadler, “reason” wasn’t “man’s means of survival”. It was a sort of Platonic “end in itself”.

Prior to the start of the novel’s main plot line, Dr. Stadler had used his reputation as a scientist to obtain governmental funding for a “State Science Institute”, so that he could pursue “science without a profit motive”. In the end, all that the “State Science Institute” produced was a weapon of mass destruction aimed at the subjugation of the American population. (A fictional version of the atomic bomb.)

The last scene involving Dr. Stadler is him physically wrestling for control of the weapon with Cuffy Meigs, a “two-bit” “mafia type”, who has risen to power in the corrupt government of a dystopian near-future America. Cuffy Meigs has no respect for science or reason. His only interest is gaining power through the use of physical force, and he’s better at it than Dr. Stadler.  I think what Rand was trying to say here is: Beware all you men of science who think the masses are too stupid to understand your ideas, so you want to substitute force for voluntary persuasion. If you try to set yourself up as a philosopher-king who rules by the use of force, you’ll ultimately loose to the criminal thugs of the world, who are better at violence than you’ll ever be. The criminals who will come to power will care little for science or reason.

If reason is discarded in favor of force, then the winner won’t be the person with the most logical argument. It’ll be the person with the biggest gun, and who is most willing to use it.  The most brutal will come to power, not the men of reason. It’s the thugs like Stalin and Mao Zedong who will be in the political driver’s seat, not a Newton or Galileo.

When individual rights are outlawed, only the criminals will have guns.

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If it’s collectivism that is driving current governmental policy when it comes to COVID-19, someone might ask what is my alternative? It’s fine and good to talk about individual rights, but how would a more capitalist society, committed to the respect of rights to life, liberty, and property, deal with the problem of a pandemic? This is a fair question.

Part of the problem is the average American has a difficult time even imagining what a truly capitalist society would look like. They make assumptions that are collectivist, often just by “default” because “that’s just how it is done” in their minds. Non-academic Americans value individualism and the egoistic “right to pursue happiness”, but they cannot always translate that into practice when it comes to our legal system and institutions. This is not a failing of the American people at large. It’s a failure of intellectuals, college professors, newspaper reporters, economists, lawyers, and politicians to present and explain such ideas. The majority of the intellectual elites are hostile towards individualism, and don’t believe people should pursue their own happiness. “Selfishness” is a dirty word for most of the elites in our society.

How would a government under capitalism deal with a viral pandemic? 1

I want to briefly address another set of ideas circulating in our society. These ideas tend to fall under the term “conservatism”, although, like “liberalism”, that is a poorly-defined term. “Conservatism” tends to reject collectivism, but one strand of that school of thought wants to replace it with religion and faith. In other words, it wants to replace the Enlightenment ideas of John Locke and Isaac Newton with those of the early Middle Ages. The early Middle Ages, the Dark Ages, were characterized by the fall of the Roman Empire, ignorance, the destruction of trade, reduced standard of living, “…frequent warfare and a virtual disappearance of urban life.” https://www.britannica.com/event/Dark-Ages

Today, cultures dominated by religious faith are mostly found in the Muslim world. Religious theocracies like Iran are characterized by violence and the violation of individual rights in order to prepare people for the afterlife. It’s beyond the scope of what I’m writing here, but,  I’ve read a compelling argument for the possibility that a large crisis like the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to a rejection of modernism in favor of some version of religion. It would probably take the form of a Christian theocracy in Europe and North America. In other words, it’s possible that religious faith, which still exists to some greater or lesser degree in the minds of Western men, could come to the surface, especially if Westerners widely viewed science and modernism as having failed them during a major crisis. (I refer the reader to “The DIM Hypothesis” by Leonard Peikoff for more on that.) This would largely be the fault of academics and philosophers as well, since they’ve spent the last hundred and fifty years attacking reason. (See “Explaining Post Modernism: Skepticism and Socialism From Rousseau to Foucault”, Hicks, 2018; see, also, The Ominous Parallels, Leonard Peikoff.)

(1) Privatized Cities

First, it must be understood that cities would be private under capitalism. Every square inch of a city would be owned by some particular person, or group of people. There would be no “public property” at all. Force is not used to fund a private city, and all standards of behavior and business safety are established by voluntary contract. (With contracts being enforced by the court system.)

Even today, there already are “quasi-private” cities to some degree.  You see this, at least partially, with “planned communities”. A developer will build an entire city grid with streets, neighborhoods, schools, parks, and business districts. Then, anyone who wants to move there, must agree to the conditions of the developer. There is a preexisting agreement not to build a commercial warehouse right next to a neighborhood with families in it. Bars are located in one section of the town, while schools and families are in another, etc. An example of an almost entirely private city may be Celebration, Florida, which was created from scratch by the Walt Disney Corporation.

Major cities are seeing the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the United States, New York, New Orleans, and San Francisco have been hit hard. These are all “port” cities, with a large flow of people and goods into, and out of the country. Additionally, they are “high density” populations, so the virus can easily spread once it comes into one of these cities.

People living in high-density, high-immigration cities like New York, are, in a sense, imposing the likelihood of pandemic on the rest of the nation. It’s an example of what economists call a “negative externality”.  People who might become sick due to risky behavior, but are asymptomatic carriers, are wanting to move about and earn a living. When some of them become sick, they then infect other people, who develop more serious symptoms or even die. The people who get sick, but are asymptomatic, are unwittingly imposing the cost of their more-risky behavior on those who do not want the risk:

The spread of COVID-19 is a great example of an externality, which is an economic term for a cost or benefit incurred or received by a third party. The best example of a negative externality is air pollution, such as when a factory emits air pollution that imposes a cost on neighbors.” https://www.cato.org/blog/less-costly-ways-reduce-harm-covid-19-without-travel-immigration-bans

Negative externalities arise because private property rights in a particular sphere are non-existent, or not well-defined. The solution is to define private property rights, and distribute “public property” to private owners. (Through a public auction, or through some sort of distribution to taxpayers.)

The details of how you take an existing city and “privatize” it would take an entire paper of its own, but in principle,  the existing residents of the city, who pay the local taxes, should all be given shares in a corporation that owns all of the previously-public infrastructure. These shareholders then have a right to elect a governing board of directors. Coerced local taxes would be replaced by “user fees”. Shareholders have to pay the user fees, and abide by the rules. The corporation would be free to charge fees for the use of its facilities, such as the roads. The city could also impose health and safety rules as a contractual condition of living there. For instance, a local business would need to abide by health and safety rules in order to have access to the roads in the city. The business would be free not to abide by these rules, but they’d be limited to flying their customers in by helicopter, or some other means that doesn’t involve the use of the roads. Since most businesses couldn’t carry on without access to the roads, they’d all abide by the health and safety rules, or they’d shut down and move somewhere else. Those who don’t like the rules, can move to another city. Competition would then occur between cities to attract residents and customers by offering the best “package” of services, such as roads, utilities, and reasonable health and safety rules, at the lowest cost.

If there are only private cities, then pandemics could be more easily fought. The owners of private city infrastructure have a profit incentive to ensure that pandemics do not spread. Say there are three private cities, and one of them, City A, has a pandemic. Cities B and C can refuse entry from people from City A until the pandemic is over. In other words, instead of the government having to impose a lockdown on City A, all of the other cities will, effectively, “socially distance” at the city-wide level.

There would also only be private highways, and the owners of the private highways could set standards of health for who can travel on them. They would want to protect their customers, so it is even less likely that people from City A would be allowed to travel to City B while the pandemic in City A is going on.

This is a much more “granulated” and precise approach to preventing the spread of disease than at the border of a country, which causes unnecessary disruptions of trade and the flow of healthy people.

(2) Freedom of Immigration Can Increase Healthcare “Resources”

With the exception of short quarantines and refusing entry to terrorists at war with the United States, more immigration would reduce the chances of a viral pandemic spreading and overwhelming the healthcare industry. An example of this could be seen with the fires in Australia in 2019. During that emergency, firemen from around the world traveled to Australia to help put out the conflagration:

Firefighters from across the US have been helping since early December. On Saturday, a group of 20 will deploy and will be followed by another group of 80 on Monday, bringing the total to 175 American firefighters on the ground in Australia.

Canada, and New Zealand are also part of a mutual aid system, helping Australia in its firefighting efforts.https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/more-us-firefighters-heading-to-help-australia-fight-wildfires/ar-BBYBhzS

COVID-19 didn’t spontaneously arise all over the world at one time. It started in a specific city in China. It spread from there to the rest of the world, then it spread to nearby countries like South Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.  (With air travel causing it to spread further, faster.)

If COVID-19 had been revealed sooner, it might have been possible to stop it before it started with doctors and healthcare workers coming into the area to treat patients, similar to what firefighters did in Australia. The spread of COVID-19, however, was moved along by the suppression of information by the Chinese government, which does not respect individual rights, like freedom of the press or freedom of movement.

(3) “Socially Distance” Ourselves From Authoritarian and Totalitarian Nations

The existence of “bad actors” like China makes a viral epidemic more likely to spread to freeer, more capitalistic countries like the United States and Western Europe. The suppression of individual rights in countries like China would have to be addressed by specific foreign policy actions of a fully capitalist nation. Open warfare with nations like China may not always be possible, perhaps because they possess nuclear weapons, making it too risky, or simply because it is not in the national interest of the capitalist nation to go to war with them, in terms of cost and lives lost.

How would a capitalist republic deal with bad actors like China, short of open war? By not dealing with them, and encouraging, but not forcing, their citizens not to deal with them.

A capitalist nation would recognize that it is, in a sense, at war with all totalitarian states, even if no shots are being fired. A free society and a totalitarian state are not compatible. Short of open warfare, which might not be feasible, here are some alternative solutions:

a. Economic boycott – Private citizens within the capitalist nation can be urged to voluntarily sign contracts stating that they will not have business dealings with totalitarian states, and the contracts only become enforceable in a court of law when a sufficient number of people have signed the contract. For instance, there could be a contract which would say: “I agree, upon 75% of the rest of US Citizens signing this contract, to boycott all Chinese companies, and have no business dealings with them for X number of years.” People would then be shown the many atrocities committed by nations like China, and persuaded, using reason and evidence, that dealing with such a country is not in their long-term interests.

b. No Enforcement of Contracts with Chinese Businesses and Nationals – United States Courts would have their jurisdiction to enforce contracts with companies or persons from totalitarian states withdrawn by Congress. (This might take a Constitutional Amendment.) If a US business takes delivery of goods from China, and doesn’t pay, the Chinese business has no recourse in US courts. If a Chinese company wants its money before delivering goods, and then that Chinese company doesn’t deliver the goods, a US court wouldn’t have jurisdiction to enforce the contract. Trade with China would be reduced to Chinese nationals bringing goods to the US for cash exchange. This would eliminate a lot of trade between the US and authoritarian and totalitarian nations, because neither side in a trade could rely on the enforcement of contracts.

c. Higher Voluntary Taxes on Businesses Engaged in Trade With China – This gets into how government would be funded under Capitalism. There are several alternatives. Most of them revolve around paying some sort of fee for government services. For instance, in order to have one’s contract enforced in a court, it would be necessary to pay a certain percentage of the value of the contract ahead of time. A contract for the sale of $100 of goods might have a 5% contract enforcement fee, in which $5 must be paid to the government as “insurance” against breach. In recognition of the fact that any US person doing business with Chinese companies and nationals is helping to prop up that regime, the government could impose a higher contract enforcement fee. The higher fee would cover the cost of increased military spending that is necessary to keep the United States safe. So, a person who does business with Chinese nationals, in any given year, might pay a 15% contract enforcement fee, rather than the usual 5%, on all of his contracts with other US citizens in the next year. In that way, US citizens would be highly discouraged from having business dealings with Chinese nationals at all.

Much higher voluntary taxes on Americans doing business with China are justified because they are making America less safe. They are imposing a cost on the rest of us, which can rightfully be recouped, to pay for extra military protection. The companies doing business with China should pay for the “negative externality” they are imposing on other Americans with their risky behavior. They’re free to do so, but not free to impose the cost on the rest of us.

Other laws relating to viral pandemics under capitalism are also possible. Some may even be better than the ones I have proposed here. The point is to show that a free society is not less “efficient” than an authoritarian one at dealing with the problem. The opposite is true. The principle of individual rights won’t guarantee man’s survival, but totalitarianism will make it impossible.

 

 

Corona Virus Questions

By this point, everyone knows what COVID-19 is, so this topic needs little introduction. The public, media, and political reaction to it is certainly new in my lifetime. People in their sixties or seventies may remember a time when there were health scares of this magnitude, with smallpox or polio, but no one born after about 1965 really remembers them. The last known smallpox case occurred in 1977, and polio was drastically reduced in the late 1950’s, after a vaccine was developed.

The question that I cannot quite answer in my mind is this: Is the public reaction warranted? Even if the reaction is merited, I think we need to think carefully about what solutions to the problem are justified. Sometimes, as the old saying goes: “The cure is worse than the disease.”

Is Corona Virus a great danger? There is sometimes great difficulty in knowing what the right answer is on a complex scientific question, where even the most knowledgeable are operating on limited information. This article, written by a medical doctor makes the same point:

All of this whiplash points to one perhaps uncomfortable thing: no one really knows how bad COVID-19 is, and how much damage it could eventually lead to.” https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/uncertainty-in-a-time-of-coronavirus/

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Some in the media and on the political left have criticized Donald Trump for being too slow in recognizing or reacting to the virus. This can simply be an error of knowledge. No one is omniscient.  This is precisely why you shouldn’t rely on an all-powerful Federal government to make decisions for you. No single human mind can hold that much complex information at one time and make a decision about what is best for your life and situation. It’s why Capitalism and constitutional republicanism are the proper system.

Government employees are poor at dealing with a disaster because the system they operate in is one of rules. There is no “upside” for a government employee who “thinks outside the box” or innovates. If they succeed, they’re unlikely to get a raise. If they fail, and it gets out they broke the rules, they’re likely to get fired. I noticed this before in a different blog entry about the Ebola Virus outbreak that occurred in Dallas:

This is the essential problem with all government. Government sets rules that are (ultimately) enforced by the barrel of a gun. The CDC bureaucrats only act if there is a rule telling them to act -which is as it should be. So, its no surprise that when this nurse was under the temperature threshold for their no-fly rule, no one at the CDC was going to “stick their neck out” and recommend that she not fly. A bureaucracy doesn’t reward incentive by its employees like a for-profit business -so there would only be “downside” if a CDC employee took initiative.”  (http://deancook.net/2014/10/16/i-need-wider-powers/)

Since I wrote this blog entry, I found a great example of the contrast between the culture of initiative that a free market encourages and incentivizes, and the “culture of conformity” that government creates. “The Checklist Manifesto” by Atul Gawande discusses how badly State and Federal government failed after Hurricane Katrina. The real, unsung heroes of that disaster were the executives and employees of Walmart. (http://atulgawande.com/book/the-checklist-manifesto/ )

The government’s command-and-control system became overwhelmed, with too many decisions to make and too little information available. But authorities clung to the traditional model. They argued with state and local government officials over the power to make decisions, resulting in chaos. Supply trucks were halted and requisitions for buses were held up while local transit buses sat idle.

Walmart executives, however, took the opposite approach from command and control. They realized Walmart’s Hurricane Katrina response could make a huge difference. Recognizing the complexity of the circumstances, CEO Lee Scott announced to managers and employees that the company would respond at the level of the disaster. He empowered local employees to make the best decisions they could.” https://www.shortform.com/blog/walmart-hurricane-katrina/

Walmart dealt with Hurricane Katrina better than the government because private enterprise encourages initiative, while government jobs encourage “covering your ass”.

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What changes should we make in the face of Corona Virus?   Even if we need to adjust our behavior temporarily, I think that any permanent  changes in our society aren’t desirable, regardless of the risks. To understand this, ask yourself a simple question: “What is life?”

Is life just continuing to breath and maintaining our body’s homeostatic equilibrium? I read an article about how grandparents are having to be isolated from their families and grandchildren, since the elderly are most at risk when it comes to Corona virus. (The mortality rates are much higher for people in their seventies and eighties.) (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/18/grandparents-cant-babysit-kids-at-home-coronavirus-fears/5072304002/)

Reading the article, I had to wonder: How long does Grandma want to go without seeing her grandchildren? How long does Grandma want to live in isolation like that? Does grandma think that life is about nothing but keeping her heart beating and her lungs pumping air? (Ask your grandma what she thinks.)

Do we want to permanently shut down movie theaters, ball parks, and churches, just because we might catch a disease? Is life worth living without social contact with other people?

Clearly, shutting down public events and isolating grandma and grandpa has to be temporary, in the face of an emergency. It cannot go on forever. Life is about more than maintaining homeostasis.

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Now, let’s turn to some of the governmental measures that have been proposed, or even implemented in the face of this threat. (Which may very well be a real threat -I don’t know for sure.) Is governmental force the answer to the Corona virus? Is a totalitarian dictatorship more “efficient” at dealing with something like this?

The Chinese were certainly quick to build hospitals and implement quarantine…I mean…after their attempt to cover it up failed. The Chinese doctor, Dr Li Wenliang, who originally discovered the virus and tried to warn people was initially arrested and threatened by the Chinese government. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51364382

Additionally, it appears that the Chinese government’s lack of transparency and openness about the virus meant the Western world didn’t find out about it until it was too late to do anything to contain it:

China has a history of mishandling outbreaks, including SARS in 2002 and 2003. But Chinese leaders’ negligence in December and January—for well over a month after the first outbreak in Wuhan—far surpasses those bungled responses.” https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/china-trolling-world-and-avoiding-blame/608332/

The Chinese government’s failure demonstrates a direct relationship between the initiation of government force and the spread of this disease. A free society and a free press would have had a much better chance of containing the initial outbreak.

Once the virus was outside China, some freer countries seem to have handled it better than others. Italy has now surpassed China in the number of deaths. But, South Korea has done remarkably well:

A week after the Jan. 27 meeting, South Korea’s CDC approved one company’s diagnostic test. Another company soon followed. By the end of February, South Korea was making headlines around the world for its drive-through screening centers and ability to test thousands of people daily.” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testing-specialrep/special-report-how-korea-trounced-u-s-in-race-to-test-people-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN2153BW

This Reuters article goes on to say that the US response hasn’t been as good. But, it notes that a lot of this had to do with bureaucracy at the FDA:

How the United States fell so far behind South Korea, according to infectious disease experts, clinicians and state and local officials, is a tale of many contrasts in the two nations’ public health systems: a streamlined bureaucracy versus a congested one, bold versus cautious leadership, and a sense of urgency versus a reliance on protocol.” https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testing-specialrep/special-report-how-korea-trounced-u-s-in-race-to-test-people-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN2153BW

Additionally, South Korea is a much smaller country than ours. It’s not much bigger than some of our states. This suggests that what is needed is a political apparatus that is closer to the people, and closer to the problem. Unfortunately, we have ceded too much power to the Federal government, rather than letting individual state governments deal with local problems, which they are closer to, and will have a better feel for.

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What about trying to stop the problem at our borders? Is a temporary restriction on people entering the country from certain areas of the world, especially China, desirable? I’ve wondered if a lot of U.S. Hispanics might not have changed their tune. Are they now wondering why Trump isn’t doing more to keep Asians out of the US? A lot of the immigration debate is driven by tribalism on both sides. As I coincidentally mentioned some time ago, I doubt most Hispanic-Americans would be as against  immigration restrictions if the majority of immigrants were Chinese:

Would the ‘Hispanic leadership’ in the Democratic Party care so much about immigration if most of the immigrants were German, or Chinese? (I doubt it.) Obama’s policies on immigration were another appeal to a tribalistic pressure group, just like his support of “Black Lives Matter”.” http://deancook.net/2018/12/17/barack-obama-tribalist-in-chief/

At the beginning of the Twentieth Century, a lot of immigration restriction was aimed at preventing Chinese entry into the country for precisely this reason. They brought epidemics with them. For instance, San Francisco was the location of a bubonic plague outbreak in 1900-1904, which was focused in that city’s Chinatown. https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/article240714036.html

All that said, I am in favor of free immigration, because it is consistent with the free market. But, requiring people to undergo a short quarantine period before entering the country could certainly be a reasonable regulation. Denying entry to people specifically known to carry communicable diseases can also likely be justified. You don’t have a right to knowingly get other people sick with your germs -that is an initiation of physical force, just like if someone recklessly drove a car and killed someone. I do, however, think this is a matter for state government, not federal. http://deancook.net/2014/10/30/i-just-realized-there-is-no-authority-under-the-constitution-for-the-feds-to-impose-a-21-day-quarantine-on-persons-from-africa/

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What about some of the aggressive measures that have been implemented at the State or local level in the United States? Are they justified? For instance, San Francisco is only allowing people to leave their homes to get groceries or pick up essentials. https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/greater-san-francisco-area-residents-195831637.html

Are cities like New York, San Francisco, and Dallas doing the right thing with aggressive, involuntary mass-quarantine measures? (Such as restaurant closings, bar closings, “shelter in place orders”, and the like?)

The “shelter in place” order in San Francisco pretty much has to count on voluntary compliance because there isn’t sufficient governmental force in place to enforce it. How will the cops know if you’re going to the grocery store or not? What if you say you’re not carrying ID? Since homeless people are exempt from the order, how will a cop know you’re not homeless? Short of a system of police checkpoints, an internal “passport system”, and heavy penalties for anyone violating this order, it is unenforceable without voluntary compliance.

In fact, compliance with quarantines and social distancing measures has to be almost entirely voluntary. As a free society, we don’t have the systems in place to enforce mass quarantines against people’s will. (And, it’s not desirable.)

I suppose someone could argue something like: “Emergencies can happen. Systems, like the ability to enforce mass quarantine, in San Francisco and New York, are needed. We need systems in place for mass lock downs, holding people without due process, and violations of the freedom of assembly.”

But, what is an “emergency”? It’s a temporary unexpected calamity. If virus outbreaks happened all the time, they wouldn’t be emergencies. We’d develop technologies and social customs to deal with them. (Everyone would learn to wear bio-hazard suits in public, people would insist that others show them a “clean test result” before letting them into their homes, etc.) No police state would be necessary in that case. The free market and freedom of association could handle it.

But, if virus pandemics remain unlikely, “outlier”, events, as they probably will, then putting into place governmental systems and sufficient force to be able to enforce a “shelter in place” order like they are proposing in New York, and have implemented in San Francisco, could be abused by any would-be tyrant or oligarchy looking to seize power and subvert constitutional republican government.

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If governmental initiation of physical force is never the answer, even in an emergency, then what should be done?

First, it isn’t a good idea to wait until the emergency occurs to figure this stuff out. We need to think carefully about what sorts of temporary governmental measures are acceptable when emotions aren’t running high. The matter requires sober and careful consideration by legislatures and courts, with an eye to due process, basic civil liberties, property rights, and the sanctity of the individual. But, since we are apparently already in the emergency, I would like to propose some “operating principles” for judging different measures being proposed by our Federal and State governments in dealing with COVID-19.

(1) The more each individual can choose their own level of risk, the better.

People can choose whether they want to go to bars, restaurants, and gyms. People can choose if they want to fly on an airplane, or travel on a cruise ship. No one else is being forced to do these things, and mass-restrictions on freedom of assembly should be used extremely sparingly.

I recognize that one person’s decision to take the risk affects other people’s lives. If I go to a restaurant, and get infected, then I could potentially infect other people. But, is mere risk of harming others justification for long-term restrictions on freedom of assembly when there is no evidence that the particular people assembling are sick? Think about this in other contexts. We could save a lot of lives by outlawing cars. People who drive in cars put pedestrians and bikers at risk, so they are, in some sense, putting people who didn’t chose to drive at risk. No one really “needs” a car, do they? Why don’t we get rid of them? Because the inconvenience on our lives is too great.

(This is not to say quarantines are never justified, as further discussed below.)

(2) The more local government can decide on what to do, the better.

County decisions are better than State decisions, and State decisions are better than Federal. Small countries like South Korea can react better than large countries, because their leaders are closer to those they represent. In the United States, each state should be viewed more as its own country, and allowed to deal with the problem, free from Federal interference.

(3) Particular people, who are a known objective threat, should be treated and quarantined, while respecting their due process rights.

The focus should be on encouraging people to be tested and treated through voluntary measures. This seems to be part of what has made South Korea so successful in dealing with the problem:

The preventative measures being taken in South Korea have so far involved no lockdowns, no roadblocks and no restriction on movement.

Trace, test and treat is the mantra. So far this country of over 50 million people have been doing their bit to help. Schools remain closed, offices are encouraging people to work from home, large gatherings have stopped.” https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51836898

Forced quarantine should be a last resort, and only when there is good evidence someone has the virus. Courts should be set up to provide Skype or other teleconferencing hearings for those quarantined to ensure their due process rights. No one should be held, or forced to stay in their home, more than 24 hours without the State getting approval from a court.

(4) Mere economic hardship should not be grounds for a bailout at other people’s expense.

Where does that end? If a restaurant can be bailed out because no one wants to eat there anymore, then what about all the other people who, in normal conditions, see their business fail? A natural disaster is an insurable event. If a business owner is concerned about business shutdown due to an emergency, then contact Allstate or State Farm, not the Feds.

The Trump plan to give everyone $1,000 makes no sense. Goods aren’t produced by the government. If you print an extra $1,000 and somehow magically put it in everyone’s bank account overnight, then they’ll just bid up the price of goods and services, since the quantity of goods and services will remain the same. That’s a prescription for price inflation.

But, with that said, when there is government-enforced quarantine, there is a good argument for that particular individual or business being compensated. If a person is forced not to work for two weeks because we, as a society, have said they might spread a disease, then that particular individual probably should be entitled to some form of support or compensation during that time-period, because it is essentially a governmental taking of private property under the Fifth Amendment of the Constitution.

(5) Fundamental civil liberties, rights to free assembly, freedom of movement, and due process must be observed.

But, this can occur within the specific context of an emergency. The freedom of assembly is not the freedom to knowingly or even negligently infect other people with your disease. People with specific, known communicable disease can be quarantined, with due process.

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A natural disaster can call for highly unusual government responses, but there is a limit. Even in an emergency, there are things that should not be done, because, in the long-run, free societies have proven to be more prosperous, healthy, and “pro-living” than the alternative, and would-be tyrants will tend to find emergencies, if not manufacture them, to justify the seizure of power.

The “Hot Button Issue” of Abortion

I wanted to write a little about this because I rarely do. I am also hoping that I can bring a somewhat “nuanced” viewpoint to a discussion that tends to be driven by pure emotion. Right off the bat, I will state that I do think there should generally be some legal right to terminate a pregnancy, with a recognition that there may be some legal “line drawing”, which I think reasonable parties can disagree on. If you disagree with me, please at least hear me out.

Biological evidence seems to show that a fetus does not have a rational capacity. In fact, it may be that even a newborn infant does not have a rational capacity, which develops some time after birth. This is because the cerebral cortex appears to be underdeveloped, even at birth. This feature of the human brain is responsible for most of what we think makes us human. It also appears to be the physical structure involved in what philosophers would call “the rational faculty”. The reason for this late development of the cerebral cortex has to do with how the fetal body and brain develops, which follows the path of evolution. For instance, human fetuses have gills and a tail at a very early stage. Since the cerebral cortex developed last in the our pre-human ancestors, it makes since this feature comes about last. It’s also necessary to keep brain size fairly small so thet the baby can pass through the mother’s birth canal. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/07/100712154422.htm

The fact that a cerebral cortex is not fully developed even at birth is significant to me because rights are based in the fact that human beings can deal with each other on the basis of reason and persuasion, making the use of physical force against each other unnecessary:

“The source of man’s rights is not divine law or congressional law, but the law of identity. A is A—and Man is Man. Rights are conditions of existence required by man’s nature for his proper survival. If man is to live on earth, it is right for him to use his mind…” (Atlas Shrugged, Ayn Rand.)

However, the point at which a baby develops a rational faculty in biology is probably not fully understood, and I will move forward with the rest of my argument on this issue without reference to whether a baby or a fetus has a sufficiently developed cerebral cortex or not. My argument for some legal right to abortion for some period of time during pregnancy doesn’t stand or fall on the issue of when the cerebral cortex is sufficiently developed.

How are rights violated? Rights are violated by other’s use of force to deprive you of a value against your will.

“Man’s rights can be violated only by the use of physical force. It is only by means of physical force that one man can deprive another of his life, or enslave him, or rob him, or prevent him from pursuing his own goals, or compel him to act against his own rational judgment.” (The Virtue of Selfishness, “The Nature of Government”, Ayn Rand)

This does not mean that force can never be used. It just means the times that force can be used are limited to those in which you are not trying to deprive another person of a value. For instance, force can be used in retaliation or self-defense.

Of special note in this context, is that there are times a person can use force against others, and it isn’t just when they are defending themselves or using retaliatory force.

There are at least two types force you can use to protect yourself:

1. Self-defense from intentional murder or other crime.
2. Use of force to prevent an unintentional collision with another person. For instance, if you use force to stop someone who has tripped from falling into you and knocking you over.

My position is that terminating a pregnancy is like this second type of use of force. It’s not force used in self defense. It is force used to stop the purely reflexive act of a fetus in attaching itself to a mother’s body during pregnancy, or the act of removing it once it has reflexively attached itself to the mother’s body.

Why would a woman need to terminate a pregnancy? All pregnancies are inherently risky for a woman. Women still die in child birth in the first world.

If she becomes pregnant and decides that she doesn’t want to take that risk, then she cannot reason with the fetus to explain why she wants it to detach itself from her body. It’s a purely reflexive act, regardless of how developed a fetus’ brain is.

Abortion is analogous to self-defense. The minimum of force is being used to detach the fetus, similar to how the minimum of force is used to prevent someone from killing you.

Does it matter that the mother chose to have sex, while In the above scenario of someone tripping and falling into you, you didn’t choose to have someone fall on you?

I would note that this would still justify abortion in the cases of rape. Since a woman who is raped didn’t choose to have sex in that scenario, my analogy is “spot on”.

At this point we are dancing around whether the fetus has any rights. What are rights? Why do we need them? This is where I and a religious advocate of rights part ways. We have fundamentally different definitions of “rights” and their basis.

Rights imply an autonomous actor who needs to take action to gain the values necessary for living. A fetus, by its very nature is physically attached to the mother. Choice doesn’t play a role in its existence.

If the mother could somehow transfer the fetus to an artificial womb, with no health danger to the mother, that would be something to consider, but we don’t have that technology yet. That means, for now, abortion is the only option for a woman who doesn’t want to risk her health with a pregnancy.

Parenthetically, I think a woman shouldn’t be able to force a man who isn’t her husband to pay child support. If a woman wants the father of her child to pay for her child, she should enter into a contract with him. I also think a man should have no right to see a child or be a part of its life without a contract with the mother. This “contract” is basically what marriage is about -or should be under an ideal political system. (That, and the sharing of one’s finances and property with the other person.)

At this point the more wild-eyed will go with the ‘reductio ad absurdum ‘ argument: “If abortion is okay, then you must think killing newborn babies is okay, since they cannot take care of themselves and there is a health-cost imposed on the mother by that too. Furthermore, maybe science will show that the rational faculty doesn’t fully develop until age 2.”

My response is: 1) the baby is detached, biologically, from the mother after birth. 2) Given that fact of biological detachment, it makes sense to “draw the line”, legally, there and presume a baby is capable of rational thought, even if such capacity may not still arise for some time. These are the minimum criteria I hold for an organism being accorded individual rights: 1, A biologically distinct organism, that, 2, has a rational faculty or capacity of some sort, necessitating that you can deal with it on the basis of reason and persuasion, unlike the lower animals that you can only deal with by means of force.

Should the “line” for when abortion is legal be drawn somewhere before birth? Say, at seven months, or even six? Should some regulation of the types of abortions, or when abortions are allowed prior to 9 months, be in place? I am willing to entertain those sorts of arguments. (Assuming no unusually high level of health threat to the mother, or some massive birth defect is discovered, after the general prohibition date, in which case there should be a judicial exception of some sort.)

Would I personally want my wife or girlfriend to have an abortion? Assuming that: One, she hadn’t been raped, two, she had no unusually high level of health risk, and, three, the fetus had no birth defects, then I wouldn’t want her to do it. I’d ask her not to, and try to talk her out of it. But, at the end of the day, I recognize it’s not my body, it’s not my health risk, and it’s not my decision.

Comparing Interracial Crime Statistics

I try to be very careful with statistics. First, there is the possibility that someone has actually misrepresented the underlying data. Second, even if the underlying data is correct, it is easy for a statistician with an agenda to use mathematical techniques to show results that don’t really give a correct context for the data.

When it comes to levels of crime committed by different racial groups, it’s really hard to find reliable data. (My theory on that is because most left-leaning academics know what it will show, and they don’t want the public to know it.)

I knew that black people commit a disproportionate amount of violent crime. (That is, they are only about 13% of the population, but they commit more than 13% of the violent crimes.) What I was having trouble finding was numbers on interracial crime -that is the number of black on white violent crimes and the number of white on black violent crimes.

Thanks to an article , I found good credible data from the FBI on interracial murders. So, for instance, in 2015, of the 3,167 white people murdered, 500 of those victims were murdered by a black person. In 2015, of the 2,664 black people murdered, 229 of them were murdered by a white person. (Intra-racial murder is much more prevalent for both groups. In other words, most whites are murdered by other whites, and most blacks are murdered by other blacks. But, that is not what I am focusing on here.)

So, there were 500 murders of white people committed by a black person in 2015 and there were 229 murders of a black person committed by a white person. Right away, that number is clearly disproportional from the number of black people in the United States. Since black people make up only about 13% of the population, the fact 500 white people were murdered by blacks, while only 229 black people were murdered by whites is remarkable.

But, I don’t know exactly how to compare these two numbers. My probability and statistics skills are not that strong. One possible way to compare them is to take the total number of black on white murders (500) and divide that by the total number of black people in America. (Roughly, 40.5 Million). Similarly, take the number of white on black murders (229) and divide that by the number of white people in America. (Roughly 233.7 Million). This will give you:

500/40.5 Million= 0.00001235 and 229/233.7 Million = 0.00000098

Then, you turn both of these into percentages by multiplying them by 100, which is: 0.001235% and 0.000098%

My thinking is that this is like rolling a six-sided die. The probability that you will roll a 6 is 1/6. The probability that you will roll a 5 or a 6 on one roll is 1/3.

You can think of the statistics on homicide above as like rolling two different dice. One die is a 40.5 Million-sided die. This is the black on white crime die. There are 500 “sides” of that die that would be a black on white crime, while the rest of the sides are all the black people who don’t murder white people. Similarly, there is another 233.7 Million-sided die, and on that one, there are 299 sides that are white people who commit a white on black murder. If you make that assumption, then the way to compare the two probabilities seems like it would be to take the first percentage, 0.001235% and divide it by the second percentage, 0.000098%. The result is 0.001235%/0.000098% = 12.6. To me, this means the probability of a black on white murder is 12.6 times as great as a white on black murder.

However, I am not sure this reasoning makes sense entirely. I am assuming that *every* black on white murder and *every* white on black murder is committed by different people. In other words, I’m assuming that of the 500 black on white murders, each murder was committed by a different black person. It’s possible that the *same* black person committed all of the 500 black on white murders in 2015. You cannot tell from these numbers alone. (Same for the white on black murders.)

It’s also possible that I don’t understand probability calculations very well (which I don’t), and I’m making some other mistake. I wish more people would discuss this matter, and try to come up with good numbers, but the data, much less an analysis of it, seems to be almost completely non-existent. (Like I said, I think most people know what the results of the analysis would be, and they don’t like to think about it, or they have a political agenda.)

 

 

Evidence

Lets say Albert tells me he saw Victor commit a murder 30 years ago.

Victor categorically denies it.

I say to Albert: Do you have any physical evidence of this murder? (Even a dead body?)

Albert: No

I say to Albert: Do you have any other witnesses that can corroborate what you are saying?

Albert: No, in fact some of the people who I say were there say they don’t remember this.

I say to Albert: Where were you when this happened?

Albert: I was at a party.

Me: Were you drinking?

Albert: Yes.

Me: How long ago did this happen?

Albert: 30 years ago.

I don’t actually think Albert has said anything here. All he has is his statement, and he admits that he was drinking. I know drinking alters perception of reality and memory. https://pubs.niaaa.nih.gov/publications/aa63/aa63.htm

Albert has no credibility, and I’m simply going to regard his assertion as “arbitrary”. He has no credible evidence to back up this assertion. Albert’s assertion is neither true nor false. It is simply “arbitrary”. It’s like the claim: “There’s an invisible gremlin on my shoulder, but only I can see it. Now prove that I’m lying.” The onus of proof is on he, or she, who makes the assertion.

“‘Arbitrary’ means a claim put forth in the absence of evidence of any sort, perceptual or conceptual; its basis is neither direct observation nor any kind of theoretical argument. [An arbitrary idea is] a sheer assertion with no attempt to validate it or connect it to reality.” http://aynrandlexicon.com/lexicon/arbitrary.html

If your response is: “You can’t prove Albert didn’t see this murder,” then you’re essentially asking Victor to “prove a negative”. Victor says it didn’t happen. How is he supposed to present evidence of something that didn’t happen, when the person making the assertion hasn’t really presented any credible evidence for it?

Now lets say two people both make an assertion that on two separate, and unrelated, occasions, Victor committed two separate murders. They both admit they had been drinking at the time, and have no other witnesses to corroborate what they assert, nor do they have any physical evidence to back up what they assert. The fact that two people (or three, or four) make completely unrelated assertions doesn’t somehow make any one of those assertions more or less true. You cannot say “A is true because B is true,” and then turn around and say: “B is true because A is true.” I think this is an example of “Begging the Question”. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Begging_the_question

If you could show that Victor had, in fact committed one murder with some independent evidence of that murder, then that probably would be some evidence that he had committed the second murder. This is because we know that someone who does an action one time will tend to act in accordance with a pattern or habit when doing the same action on another occasion. But, you’d first have to put forth some independent evidence that he committed the first murder. Simply using the unsupported assertion that Victor committed a first murder to prove that he committed a second, unrelated, murder, and, in turn, using that second, unsupported assertion of an unrelated murder to prove that he committed the first murder, is bad reasoning.

Now lets say you were accusing Victor of some sort of sex crime, like indecent exposure or attempted rape. Victor says it didn’t happen. He denies it. If a person claims that they had been drinking alcohol 30 years ago when they witnessed this incident, does that hurt their credibility as a witness? Yes. The analysis is the same. If they have no physical evidence of this, and no other witnesses to corroborate their story, then the accuser has made what can only be described as an arbitrary assertion with no credible evidence to back it up.

The fact that a second accuser comes forward and makes an accusation of a separate, unrelated sex crime, where the accuser admits she was very intoxicated, doesn’t somehow make it more or less likely that the other accusation is true. If fifty women come forward making fifty different claims of completely unrelated criminal acts on separate occasions, that doesn’t somehow make any one of those accusations any more or less true unless you can show that at least one of those accusations is true with independent evidence. (In which case you could say the one independently established assertion is proof of a habit.)

Most people will accept my reasoning on the murder, but will want to say that attempted rape is different. They will likely say that women are generally embarrassed or ashamed to report rape, and that this is evidence that a woman, on any given occasion, is telling the truth. This is the fallacy of division. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallacy_of_division Even if 99% of the women making rape allegations are telling the truth, that doesn’t mean you can say, in any given instance, that a woman accusing a man of rape is telling the truth. We know that some percentage of women make false rape accusations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duke_lacrosse_case So, you cannot simply assume that any particular woman, in any particular case, is telling the truth.

Applying these principles to the case of Judge Kavanaugh, we have two women who admit that they were drinking when each of these incidents happened. I base my understanding of the situation on two news articles, that I recommend you read:

First alleged incident: http://www.waxahachietx.com/zz/news/20180916/kavanaugh-accuser-speaks-out-on-sexual-assault-claim

Second alleged incident: https://www.businessinsider.com/brett-kavanaugh-sexual-assault-yale-deborah-ramirez-2018-9

As far as I can tell, neither of these women has found any independent witnesses to corroborate what they’ve said. Neither of them has any evidence other than their assertion that they witnessed this, and they have less credibility in my mind than Judge Kavanaugh, because they both admit they had been drinking when these incidents allegedly occurred, while Kavanaugh says it didn’t happen.  I say “credibility in my mind” because I don’t know either these women or Judge Kavanaugh personally, so I only have the information contained in news articles on which to assess credibility.

The third accuser has prepared an affidavit. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kavanaugh-accuser-michael-avenatti-reveals-julie-swetnick-today-2018-09-26/

She was careful to never say whether or not she had been drinking alcohol at the parties where she allegedly saw Judge Kavanaugh assault and gang rape women. The question of alcohol consumption is highly relevant for determining her credibility as a witness, and the fact that she was at a “party environment” suggests to me that she probably was drinking alcohol. If she had NOT been drinking, then it would make sense to put that in her affidavit, because it would make her much more credible.

If she were subject to cross-examination, the FIRST question I’d ask her is whether she had been drinking alcohol when she witnessed these things, and how much? That goes directly to her credibility given the memory impairing effects of alcohol.

Additionally, she states in line 14 of her affidavit that “I am aware of other witnesses that can attest to the truthfulness of each of the statements above.” But, she doesn’t say WHO those people are. Why not? It would instantly make her story more credible if she gave names of other witnesses who could corroborate what she’s saying. The fact that she doesn’t do so makes her story very suspicious.

The fact that she was willing to sign an affidavit, and it is therefore “sworn”, doesn’t make it more credible. Since the affidavit is not being used for any lawsuit or for any legal proceeding, I doubt she could be prosecuted for perjury, if it were shown she was lying. If anything in the affidavit was shown to be a lie, none of the lies would be considered “material”. For instance, someone could sign an affidavit saying “I swear that the sky is red,” and then post it on the Internet, but I don’t think that would make them guilty of perjury because the statement “the sky is red”, while a lie, isn’t material to anything from a legal standpoint. (There is no lawsuit where the color of the sky is an issue.)

Given the fact that she doesn’t say if she was drinking alcohol when she witnessed these things, and given the fact that she claims there were other witnesses, but didn’t name them, I regard her entire affidavit as suspect. Any reasonable person who wasn’t lying would know that others would want to know these things and would state them in the affidavit.

She has yet to give an interview. This is also very suspicious and makes what she is saying suspect. It appears that she isn’t willing to let reporters ask her any of the basic questions that are raised from reading her affidavit. Although, I’ve heard, she will give an interview on Sunday for a pay cable channel. (This also sounds strange to me.) At any rate, I hope she is asked some of these basic questions.

These are the three accusers that have come out to date. I find none of them to be credible based on the news stories I’ve seen. I am not saying they are lying. I’m saying they have not presented any credible evidence for what they are saying. I therefore regard their statements as “arbitrary” -having no evidence to back them up. Before I’m prepared to treat a man as a criminal in my personal or professional life, and denounce him and avoid him, I need some level of actual evidence to demonstrate that what the speaker is saying is true.

The other issue in my mind is: Does any of this matter?. All of these incidents of alleged rape or attempted rape are well outside the statute of limitations for prosecution. The only way this matters is in Judge Kavanaugh’s advise and consent process by the Senate. Senators can hold hearings on the issue, but where do they draw the line? Do they have to have a hearing on every outlandish accusation made by any person about a nominated Federal Judge before they can perform their advise and consent role? What if someone claimed Judge Kavanaugh was an alien sent here to take over the world? Should an obvious nut be allowed to testify? Senators have to assess credibility of potential witnesses based on news reports like the ones I’ve cited. Then they have to come up with some standard of “probable cause” on who to have as a witness, and I think, based on that, no reasonable Senator could even regard these women as credible enough to testify at a hearing.