My purpose here is simply to look at the numbers and see if the murder rate in the US is proportional to what it should be, given the white population versus the black population. I do so without trying to theorize about the reasons why murder rates break down the way they do between the races. In a subsequent blog post, I plan on using this analysis to discuss the so-called “Black Lives Matters” movement and to attempt to determine if they are focusing time, energy, and taxpayer money into areas that will most effectively reduce the unjustified homicide rate of black people in America.
In 2013, 2,491 people in the US classified as “black” were murdered, according to the FBI. (See https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded-homicide/expanded_homicide_data_table_6_murder_race_and_sex_of_vicitm_by_race_and_sex_of_offender_2013.xls, last accessed 9-5-2016.)
Of those 2,491 black persons murdered in 2013, the race of the offender was classified as “black” in 2,245 of instances. In other words, out of 2,491 black people murdered, 90% of the perpetrators of the crime were also black. How does this compare to the white murder victim rate? The same FBI statistics say that in 2013, there were 3,005 white murder victims, and that the race of the offender was white in 2,509 of those murders. This means that out of 3,005 white people murdered, 84% of the perpetrators of the crime were also white.
How does this compare to the proportions of population? Blacks make up roughly 13% of the US population. (See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Race_and_ethnicity_in_the_United_States, last accessed 9-5-2016.) Whites make up about 73% of the US population. 5,496 people who were either black or white were murdered in 2013. (This is adding together the number of black people and white people murdered according to the FBI, see https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded-homicide/expanded_homicide_data_table_6_murder_race_and_sex_of_vicitm_by_race_and_sex_of_offender_2013.xls, last accessed 9-5-2016.)
The total US population in 2013 was about 317 million people. Therefore, the chance that a given person chosen at random from the US population in 2013 was both “black” and “a victim of murder” is 2,491 divided by 317 million times 100 which is 0.00079% . The chance that a given person chosen at random from the US population in 2013 was both “white” and “a victim of murder” is 3,005 divided by 317 million times 100, which is 0.00095%. In other words, the chance that one was both “white” and “a murder victim” was about 1.19 times greater than the chance that one was both “black” and “a murder victim”. (because 1.19 times 0.00079 = [roughly] 0.0009401)
This 1.19 times number doesn’t show the whole picture, however, Thirteen percent of the total US population is black, which means there are about 41 million black people in the US. There are 232 million white people in the US in 2013. As already discussed, 90% of all black people murdered are murdered by other black people and 84% of all white people murdered are murdered by other white people. So, 2,245 black people murdered by other black people means that a black person’s chances of being murdered by another black person are 2,245 divided by 41 million times 100 percent is 0.0055%. 2,509 white people murdered by other white people means that a white person’s chances of being murdered by another white person are 2,509 divided by 232 million times 100 percent: 0.0011%. A black person is five times more likely to be murdered by another black person than a white person is to be murdered by another white person (0.0011% * 5 = 0.0055%)
Since 2,245 intra-racial murders were committed by blacks and 2,509 intra-racial murders were committed by whites, the total number of intra-racial murders committed by blacks and whites combined was 2,245 + 2,509 = 4,754. So, out of the total number of intra-racial murders committed by blacks and whites combined, the percentage committed by blacks was: 2,245 divided by 4,754 times 100 = 47%. Out of the total intra-racial murders committed by blacks and whites, the percentage committed by whites was 52%.
Since blacks make up only 15% of the population compared to whites (who make up 73%), this means that if the total number of intra-racial murders committed by blacks were proportional to the population, it would be 15% of 4,754 intra-racial murders committed by blacks and whites, or 713.6 intra-racial murders committed by blacks in 2013. Since it was actually 2,245 intra-racial murders committed by blacks in 2013, then the number of intra-racial murders committed by blacks was 3.15 times higher than it should have been given the proportion of the black population to the white population.(See http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf, last accessed 9-5-2016.)
The Bureau of Justice Statistics sets forth the percentage of homicides committed by blacks and the percentage of homicides committed by whites between 1980 and 2009. These figures can be found at page 12, Table 7 of “Homicide Trends in the United States, 1980-2008”, where it said that of all homicides committed in the US, 45.3% of offenders were white and 52.5% were black. (See http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf, last accessed 9-5-2016.)
Once again, since blacks make up only 15% of the population compared to whites, who make up 73%, this means that of all murders committed in the US, which was 5,723 in 2013, then if the homicide rate were proportional to the different racial populations, the number of murders committed by black people should have been 858.45 (0.15 * 5,723). But, the number of murders actually committed by blacks in the US in 2013 was 2,698.This means that in 2013, the proportion of murders committed by black people was 2,698 divided by 5,723 * 100 = 47%. Forty-seven percent of all murders in 2013 were committed by black people, despite the fact that they are only 15% of the population. The number of blacks committing murder in 2013 was about 3.13 times (2,698 divided by 858) higher than it should have been if the murder rate were strictly proportional by racial groups. (See https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded-homicide/expanded_homicide_data_table_6_murder_race_and_sex_of_vicitm_by_race_and_sex_of_offender_2013.xls, last accessed 9-5-2016. The 5,723 number of murder victims in 2013 was obtained by adding together “race of victim” numbers found in the far-left “total” column: 3,005+2,491+159+68=5,723. The 2,698 number of blacks that committed murder number was obtained by adding together the “Black or African American” numbers in the “race of offender” grouping: 409+2,245+27+17=2,698.)
As I said when I started, I am not looking to analyze the causes of this or suggest what this should mean in terms of government policy. I am simply crunching the numbers in order to see what they are. I will save my analysis for another blog posting.
