November 8, 2022 is election day in the United States, and I must again make decisions that are like choosing between death by drowning and death by falling. At the Federal level, this election is particularly difficult. There are two major factors that would motivate me to vote in mutually contradictory ways. My level of ambivalence is so high that I am paralyzed by indecision at this point.
The first important issue is the Roe v. Wade overrule by the US Supreme Court. This decision effectively eliminated any Federal court protection of abortion freedom, leaving the issue up to the Federal Congress, state legislatures, and state courts to decide. This decision does not just return the issue to the state level. If it did, I’d be far less concerned about it. Furthermore, the theocratic base of the Republican Party, that is the wing of the Republican party that is driven primarily by a religious dogma they want to impose on the rest of the nation by force, will not be satisfied with leaving the issue up to the states to decide.
Former Vice President Mike Pence speaks for the theocratic wing of the Republican party on this issue:
“‘I welcome any and all efforts to advance the cause of life in state capitals or in the nation’s capital,’ Pence said of federal legislation to institute a national abortion ban.” https://www.yahoo.com/video/mike-pence-says-passing-abortion-141514707.html
Mike Pence, and his fellow theocratic Republicans will not rest until there is a nationwide-abortion ban, enforced by the FBI and other Federal law enforcement authorities.
Senator Lindsey Grahm, another major player within the theocratic branch of the Republican party also does not want to leave the issue up to the states. He has already introduced a bill in Congress to ban abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy. I’m sure that in time, 15 weeks would be whittled down by subsequent Republican legislation.
If the Republicans ever gain sufficient control of both Houses of Congress and the White House, I believe they will move to enact Federal legislation banning abortion. I would be perfectly happy to let abortion be fought out on the state level. Some states would always have legalized abortion, and over time, I think we could educate the people of the more conservative states, and convince them to liberalize their abortion laws. But, the hardcore religious base of the Republican Party will never be satisfied with this, as revealed by Mike Pence and Lindsey Grahm.
I believe the right to abortion is a fundamental right. Until a Constitutional Amendment is passed guaranteeing that Congress will not interfere with state law when it comes to abortion, this issue has moved to the top of my priorities when I vote. I will be very hesitant to vote Republican at the Federal level if I think it will give them control of Congress and the Presidency at the same time.
If abortion were the only issue, my decision would be clear, but it is not the only issue. Inflation has come roaring back to life for the first time since the early 1980’s driven by profligate Federal government spending, and, most importantly, by extremely reckless monetary policy at the Federal Reserve. https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/peter-schiff-nowhere-near-peak-inflation
However, general, across the board, rising prices is primarily a monetary phenomena, largely controlled by the Federal Reserve’s policies. Biden and the Democrats are somewhat to blame for this by re-nominating Jerome Powell to the Federal Reserve Chairmanship, but I doubt Trump and the Republicans would have done any better.
Biden and the Democrats are not helping the situation with increased government spending, such as stimulus checks and student loan forgiveness, which is just, implicitly, more stimulus checks. Again, I don’t know that a Republican President and Congress would have done much different, though.
The one thing that a Republican Congress would do right now is act as a check on Biden. I concede that Republicans tend to forget about fiscal restraint when there is a Republican in the White House, but they do suddenly remember their principles when the President is a Democrat.
A Republican House and Senate will be very dangerous two to three years from now, however. Joe Biden’s age concerns me a great deal. I do not think Biden will have a second term as President. I think he will decline to run again based on his age, or he will simply die of natural causes between now and 2024. This means there will be no incumbent Democrat the Republicans have to run against in the 2024 Presidential elections. If Mike Pence, or someone like him, were to become President, and we had a Republican Congress going into the 2024 to 2026 legislative cycle, we could very well see a nationwide abortion ban by, say, 2025.
Based on these considerations, I am likely not going to vote at the Federal level in these midterm elections. I will not vote for people who will quite probably be involved in instituting a nationwide abortion ban a few years from now. Furthermore, when 2024 rolls around, if there is in fact a Republican majority in Congress, I will probably have to make some very hard decisions. That means voting for a Democratic presidential candidate. Even if that means I have to vote for Kamala Harris or (shudder) Elizabeth “Pocahontas” Warren.